How far are we from geothermal power in places without natural hot springs?
Utah FORGE has circulated water through an engineered hot-rock reservoir. DOE reports that a 30-day circulation test in August 2024 produced water at about 370°F. In September and October 2026, Fervo Energy reported that its Cape Station project had reached first power and that its first 33 MW block had entered commercial operation, with two more blocks to follow. No engineered reservoir has yet shown years of steady output in the sources reviewed, and the cost target of $45 per MWh by 2035 has not been shown to be reachable.
Close. Early pilots are running in the real world.
The first utility-scale enhanced geothermal development has reached first power, and its first 33 MW block is in commercial operation under a power purchase agreement, according to the company. That is a real-world deployment at one site, so it is more than a research test. Multi-month circulation at Utah FORGE has only just started, with no published results, and no source reviewed shows years of steady output, operation across different geologies or costs at the level needed for scale. The stage is therefore pilot, not scaling.
The tech tree
Everything recorded on Vrulum that this future needs, oldest foundations at the top and the goal at the bottom. Lines show what each step requires.
- 2024Month-long circulation test at Utah FORGEDone Unlocked.
- 2026Extended multi-month circulation test at Utah FORGEIn progress Being researched.
- 2026First power at Cape StationDone Unlocked.
- 2026First 33 MW block in commercial operationDone Unlocked.
- Date not recordedRemaining Phase I blocks, about 100 MW in totalIn progress Being researched.
- Date not recordedPhase II, a further 400 MWIn progress Being researched.
- Date not recordedMulti-year operation with known thermal decline and water lossNot started Locked.
- Date not recordedRepeatable wells in different geologiesNot started Locked.
- Date not recordedCost at the 2035 targetNot started Locked.
- GoalGeothermal power almost anywhereGoalRequires: Enhanced geothermal systems, Month-long circulation test at Utah FORGE, Extended multi-month circulation test at Utah FORGE, First power at Cape Station, First 33 MW block in commercial operation, Remaining Phase I blocks, about 100 MW in total, Phase II, a further 400 MW, Multi-year operation with known thermal decline and water loss, Repeatable wells in different geologies, Cost at the 2035 target. Locked.
The road so far
3 of 9 steps done, 3 in progress.
- Done · Aug 2024Month-long circulation test at Utah FORGE
DOE reports a 30-day circulation test at Utah FORGE in August 2024 that produced water at about 370°F. The update does not give water recovery or steady output for that test. [1]
- In progress · Aug 2026Extended multi-month circulation test at Utah FORGE
On 17 August 2026, DOE said the extended test was kicking off. It is intended to show whether the reservoir can sustain circulation, and to measure pressure, production stability, water recovery and heat extraction over months. The update gives no end date or results. [1]
- Done · 24 Sept 2026First power at Cape Station
Fervo Energy announced on 24 September 2026 that Cape Station had reached first power. The company describes it as the first utility-scale enhanced geothermal development to reach this milestone. The release gives no reservoir depth or temperature. [2]
- Done · 30 Sept 2026First 33 MW block in commercial operation
Fervo declared its first GeoBlock in commercial operation on 30 September 2026, one day before its contractual date. The company reports 33 MW of net output, which it describes as early-stage performance. Sustained output is not reported. [3]
- In progressRemaining Phase I blocks, about 100 MW in total
Fervo says the other two 33 MW GeoBlocks are being commissioned and are expected to reach contractual commercial operation by 1 January 2027. These are company expectations. [3]
- In progressPhase II, a further 400 MW
Fervo says Phase II is under construction and expects commercial operation in 2028. Fervo's first-power release also says offtake is about 900 MW under full contract across the project. [2]
- Not startedMulti-year operation with known thermal decline and water loss
No source reviewed reports multi-year output from an engineered reservoir. DOE's 2026 update says the extended test is meant to answer questions about thermal decline and water loss. [1]
- Not startedRepeatable wells in different geologies
DOE's Energy Earthshot aims to show EGS in different geographies and geologies through four pilot demonstration projects. The DOE launch article gives no results or dates for those projects. [4]
- Not startedCost at the 2035 target
DOE's target is to cut the cost of EGS by 90%, to $45 per MWh, by 2035. The target was developed from EGS supply cost curves and a capacity expansion model in an NREL analysis from 2023. The sources reviewed give no published drilling cost trend and no dated progress report against the target. [4][5]
Why it matters
Most geothermal power today uses natural hot water underground, and that resource is available in only some places. If engineered reservoirs work across a wider range of geology, geothermal heat could be drawn from many more regions. Geothermal heat does not depend on the weather, so it could supply power when solar and wind cannot. The open questions are how long these reservoirs last and what they cost to build.
What stands in the way
- Long-term performance is untested. The longest FORGE circulation test in the sources reviewed lasted about 30 days, and the extended test has only just started.
- Thermal decline and water loss over years are not yet measured. DOE says the extended test is meant to answer these questions.
- Company figures are not independently verified. Cape Station's output and dates come from Fervo's own releases, and the sources reviewed contain no independent measurement of them.
- Cost is not yet shown. The $45 per MWh target by 2035 was developed from EGS supply cost curves in an NREL capacity expansion model. The sources reviewed give no published drilling cost trend and no progress report against the target.
- Induced seismicity is not covered by the sources reviewed. No seismic limit or monitoring standard is recorded here.
Published forecasts
What others have predicted. These are their estimates, not ours.
| Who | Forecast | Timeframe | Made |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fervo Energy | Phase II, an additional 400 MW at Cape Station, is expected to reach commercial operation in 2028. The company gives this as an expectation for a project under construction. [2] | 2028 | 24 Sept 2026 |
Signals to watch
- Published results from the FORGE extended circulation test, including duration, steady flow, production temperature and water recovery.
- Cape Station's remaining two Phase I blocks reaching contractual commercial operation by 1 January 2027, and their reported net output over months rather than days.
- Results from DOE-funded EGS pilot demonstration projects in other geographies and geologies.
- Published drilling costs per well or per MWh at EGS projects, compared with the $45 per MWh target.
Sources
- government report
Running Hot, Keeping Cool: FORGE Embarks on Extended Circulation Test
U.S. Department of Energy, Geothermal Technologies Office, 17 Aug 2026. - company announcement
Fervo Energy Achieves First Power at Cape Station, a Landmark Moment for the Future of Enhanced Geothermal Systems
Fervo Energy, 24 Sept 2026. - company announcement
Fervo Energy Declares Commercial Operation at Cape Station Ahead of Schedule, Leading the Race for Next-Generation Geothermal Energy
Fervo Energy, 1 Oct 2026. - government report
DOE Launches New Energy Earthshot to Slash the Cost of Geothermal Power
U.S. Department of Energy, 8 Sept 2022. - government report
Enhanced Geothermal Shot Analysis for the Geothermal Technologies Office
Chad Augustine, Sarah Fisher, Jonathan Ho et al.. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL/TP-5700-84822), 24 Jan 2023.
Last reviewed 21 Oct 2026.