Life after the International Space Station

Will there be a continuously crewed private station in low Earth orbit when the ISS is retired?

NASA says it has committed to fully use and safely operate the International Space Station through 2030. No privately owned station has launched or hosted a crew. NASA's second-phase contracts for commercial stations are still in procurement, with awards planned for spring 2027. Vast plans to launch Haven-1 no earlier than the first quarter of 2027, and Airbus plans to launch Starlab in 2029. GAO reported in June 2026 that NASA must assess in 2027 whether a commercial station can be ready before the ISS retires, and that development might take longer than planned.

AI illustration · Illustrative scene, not a photograph of the specific device or experiment.
WHERE WE AREEngineering prototypes

Getting closer. Prototypes exist, but not in real-world use.

Long-duration crewed life in orbit has been shown on the ISS, which is government owned. No privately owned station has flown, and no commercial station has hosted a crew. Designs and early hardware are being built under NASA agreements, so the stage is engineering prototype rather than pilot. This is a judgement based on the sources reviewed.

The tech tree

Everything recorded on Vrulum that this future needs, oldest foundations at the top and the goal at the bottom. Lines show what each step requires.

What it takes: Life after the International Space Station Unlocked Being researched Locked
  1. 2017Asteroid miningResearch and prototypes Being researched.
  1. 2014In-space manufacturingResearch and prototypesRequires: Asteroid mining. Being researched.
  1. 1964Reusable launch vehiclesPilot and early commercialRequires: In-space manufacturing. Unlocked.
  1. 2021Commercial space stationsResearch and prototypesRequires: Reusable launch vehicles. Being researched.
  1. 2020Early NASA agreements with commercial station companiesDone Unlocked.
  2. 2026Phase 2 draft plan publishedDone Unlocked.
  3. 2026Final request for proposals releasedDone Unlocked.
  4. 2026Industry proposals dueNot started Locked.
  5. 2027Contract awardsNot started Locked.
  6. 2027NASA decision on readiness to replace the ISSNot started Locked.
  7. Date not recordedISS operating under NASA's plan to 2030In progress Being researched.
  8. Date not recordedFirst privately owned station launchedNot started Locked.
  9. Date not recordedAxiom module launched to the ISS and then departsNot started Locked.
  10. Date not recordedStarlab launchedNot started Locked.
  11. Date not recordedInitial in-space crewed demonstration on a commercial stationNot started Locked.
  12. Date not recordedContinuous crewed presence in low Earth orbitNot started Locked.
  1. GoalLife after the International Space StationGoalRequires: Commercial space stations, ISS operating under NASA's plan to 2030, Early NASA agreements with commercial station companies, Phase 2 draft plan published, Final request for proposals released, Industry proposals due, Contract awards, NASA decision on readiness to replace the ISS, First privately owned station launched, Axiom module launched to the ISS and then departs, Starlab launched, Initial in-space crewed demonstration on a commercial station, Continuous crewed presence in low Earth orbit. Locked.

The road so far

3 of 12 steps done, 1 in progress.

  1. In progressISS operating under NASA's plan to 2030

    NASA's transition FAQ says NASA has committed to fully use and safely operate the station through 2030. SpaceX has been selected to develop and deliver the U.S. Deorbit Vehicle, which would bring the station down in a controlled re-entry into a remote ocean area. The FAQ page was last updated on 18 July 2024. [1]

  2. Done · 2020Early NASA agreements with commercial station companies

    NASA awarded Axiom Space a contract in 2020 for at least one habitable commercial module to be attached to the ISS. In 2021 NASA signed Space Act Agreements with Blue Origin, Northrop Grumman and Starlab for early station development. [2]

  3. Done · 6 Jul 2026Phase 2 draft plan published

    NASA's draft plan proposes firm-fixed-price, multi-award, indefinite-delivery/indefinite-quantity contracts for development, certification and services, with two or more contractors selected for early development. Later final design work would be a competitive task order. The page gives no award dates and no funding figures. NASA held the industry briefing on 9 July 2026. [3]

  4. Done · 9 Oct 2026Final request for proposals released

    NASA's Commercial LEO Destination Contract page lists the final request for proposals as planned for September 2026 and as released on 9 October 2026. [4]

  5. Not started · 8 Dec 2026Industry proposals due

    NASA's preliminary milestone schedule lists industry proposals as due on 8 December 2026, 60 days after the RFP release. No actual date is shown, and the schedule is labelled preliminary. [4]

  6. Not started · 2027Contract awards

    NASA's preliminary schedule plans contract awards for spring 2027. Until awards are made, no company has a funded NASA contract for the second phase. [4]

  7. Not started · 2027NASA decision on readiness to replace the ISS

    GAO's June 2026 report says NASA officials told it that the assessment of whether a commercial station can be ready before the ISS retires in 2030 will need to occur in 2027. If stations are not ready in time, NASA may need to consider options such as extending ISS operations beyond 2030. [5]

  8. Not startedFirst privately owned station launched

    Vast's Haven-1 was expected to launch in 2026. In January 2026 Vast said it would launch no earlier than the first quarter of 2027. No launch has taken place. [8]

  9. Not startedAxiom module launched to the ISS and then departs

    NASA's December 2024 account says Axiom's Payload, Power and Thermal Module would launch to the ISS first and could depart as early as 2028 to become free-flying. The account gives no launch date for any module. [6]

  10. Not startedStarlab launched

    Airbus says Starlab is currently scheduled to launch in 2029 on a single flight of SpaceX's Starship. The station is designed for a crew of four and can temporarily accommodate up to eight. The Airbus page shows no publication date. [7]

  11. Not startedInitial in-space crewed demonstration on a commercial station

    NASA's commercial space stations page says the minimum Phase 2 milestones will include an initial in-space crewed demonstration. No commercial station has yet carried a crew. [2]

  12. Not startedContinuous crewed presence in low Earth orbit

    GAO reports that NASA has not yet assessed the likelihood or duration of a gap in human presence in low Earth orbit. The question stays open until a commercial station is occupied before the ISS is retired. [5]

Why it matters

If there is a gap, people would have no station in low Earth orbit for some time. That could pause long-running research in orbit, and companies and governments could lose a place to test equipment and train crews. Under NASA's draft plan, NASA would buy development and services from commercial stations rather than run one itself, so the timing of their first crewed visits decides whether that model works.

What stands in the way

  • No commercial station has launched or hosted a crew, so every date here is a planned date, and some have already moved.
  • NASA's second-phase contract awards are planned for spring 2027 and the schedule is labelled preliminary. The NASA sources reviewed give no funding figures for the programme.
  • GAO reported in June 2026 that NASA historical data suggest developing commercial stations might take longer than currently planned.
  • NASA has not yet assessed how likely or how long a gap in human presence in low Earth orbit could be.
  • The status of Orbital Reef could not be confirmed from the primary sources reviewed for this record.

Published forecasts

What others have predicted. These are their estimates, not ours.

WhoForecastTimeframeMade
Vast (reported by Payload Space)Haven-1 will launch no earlier than the first quarter of 2027. The launch had been expected in 2026. [8]202720 Jan 2026
NASA (reporting Axiom Space's revised assembly plan)Axiom's Payload, Power and Thermal Module could depart the ISS as early as 2028 to become free-flying. [6]202819 Dec 2024

Signals to watch

  • Industry proposals for NASA's commercial LEO destinations work, planned for 8 December 2026.
  • NASA's contract awards, planned for spring 2027, and whether they name two or more contractors.
  • NASA's 2027 assessment of whether a commercial station can be ready before the ISS retires, and any decision to extend ISS operations.
  • Vast's Haven-1 launch, planned no earlier than the first quarter of 2027.
  • Axiom's first module launching to the ISS, and any departure from the station in 2028 or later.
  • A first crewed visit to a privately owned station.

Sources

  1. government report
    FAQs: The International Space Station Transition Plan
    NASA, 18 Jul 2024.
  2. government report
    Commercial Space Stations
    NASA, 15 Aug 2025.
  3. government report
    NASA Seeks Industry Input on Second Phase of Commercial Space Stations
    NASA, 6 Jul 2026.
  4. government report
    Commercial Low Earth Orbit (LEO) Destination Contract (CLDC)
    NASA Johnson Space Center, 19 Oct 2026.
  5. government report
    Low-Earth Orbit: NASA Faces Impending Decisions for Replacing International Space Station with Commercial Stations
    U.S. Government Accountability Office, 17 Jun 2026.
  6. government report
    NASA, Axiom Space Change Assembly Order of Commercial Space Station
    NASA, 19 Dec 2024.
  7. company announcement
    Starlab
    Airbus, 22 Oct 2026.
  8. news
    Vast Delays Haven-1 Launch to 2027
    Payload Space, 20 Jan 2026.

Last reviewed 22 Oct 2026.