10 May 2024

One tracked satellite's decay rate rose more than fourfold in the May 2024 storm

Sensors, imaging and electronic skinSpace and aerospace
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What was demonstrated

Parker and Linares used the orbital decay of tracked satellites, from public two-line element (TLE) orbit data, to estimate changes in the thermosphere during the geomagnetic storm of 10 to 12 May 2024. For one tracked object (SATCAT 43180), decay was about 38 metres a day before the storm and rose more than fourfold, to about 180 metres a day, during it. The NRLMSISE-00 model gave total mass density at 400 km altitude of up to six times its baseline value 12 hours earlier. The authors report that forecasts of the geomagnetic index ap underpredicted the initial rise, and that the storm's magnitude and duration were poorly predicted even one day ahead. NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center reported that G5 conditions were first observed at 6:54 pm EDT on 10 May 2024.

Why it matters

Public orbit tracking data may be enough to measure how a severe storm changed satellite decay, which could help operators judge storm risk. Because the work rests on one storm and a density model, it suggests rather than shows how general these effects are.

Caveats

  • The 38 and 180 metres per day figures are for one tracked object (SATCAT 43180), so they do not show typical decay for other satellites.
  • The up-to-sixfold density increase is a model output (NRLMSISE-00), not a direct measurement of the atmosphere.
  • This record covers satellite drag effects only. It does not cover power grid or navigation outcomes.
  • The authors attribute most of the May 2024 manoeuvre activity to the automated orbit maintenance of the Starlink constellation.

Technology profiles

Sources

  1. peer reviewed paper
    Satellite Drag Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm
    William E. Parker, Richard Linares. Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, 2024. DOI: 10.2514/1.A36164.
  2. government report
    G5 Conditions Observed!
    NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, 10 May 2024.

Last reviewed 22 Oct 2026.