Space weather forecasting

Also known as Space weather prediction, Solar storm forecasting, Geomagnetic storm forecasting

Space weather forecasting predicts solar storms, such as coronal mass ejections and flares, so that satellite, power grid and navigation operators can take protective action. Forecasts are run by agencies such as NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center and the UK Met Office, and they are only partly reliable on arrival timing.

CommercialDemonstratedReviewed 22 Oct 2026
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In plain language

The Sun sometimes throws out large clouds of magnetised gas, called coronal mass ejections, and sometimes releases bursts of radiation, called flares. When these reach Earth they can disturb the magnetic field around the planet and cause geomagnetic storms. Storms can affect satellites in orbit, power grids, GPS and navigation, and radio communication.

Space weather forecasting tries to spot these events early enough to warn the people who run the systems at risk. Spacecraft at a point called L1, nearly one million miles from Earth towards the Sun, can measure the solar wind before it reaches Earth. Agencies combine those measurements with images of the Sun and computer models, then issue warnings to satellite operators, grid companies and airlines.

Technical explanation

Operational forecasts combine three kinds of input. Ground-based and space-based telescopes watch the Sun for sunspots, flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). Spacecraft at the L1 point measure the speed, density and magnetic field of the solar wind as it passes. Models then estimate a CME's speed, direction and arrival time, and the likely severity of the storm at Earth. The UK Met Office's 24-hour Space Weather Operations Centre (MOSWOC) describes this process, and notes that flares reach Earth in about eight and a half minutes, so flare effects such as radio blackouts can occur with little warning, while CMEs take one to several days to arrive.

NOAA's SWFO-L1 was launched on 24 September 2025. NOAA's status page refers to the spacecraft as SOLAR-1, lists it as the primary spacecraft at L1, and gives an operational date of 6/10/2026 (read here as 10 June 2026). The European Space Agency plans a Vigil mission for the L5 point, with a planned launch in 2031 on Ariane 6. ESA says Vigil is intended to give up to four to five days of notice for certain space weather effects, but the launch date is a plan, not a firm schedule.

Forecast skill is limited. A peer-reviewed study by Riley and colleagues (2018) assessed CME-shock arrival-time forecasts submitted to the CCMC CME Scoreboard between 2013 and 2018. The best-performing models had a mean absolute error of 13 hours and a standard deviation of 15 hours, and many models had standard deviations above 20 hours. The authors found no evidence that forecasts had become more accurate over the period. Impact forecasts for grids and satellites depend on these arrival times and on further assumptions, so their uncertainty is larger still.

What the evidence says

Each statement is typed by the strength of its evidence and linked to the source that supports it.

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NOAA's SWFO-L1 satellite launched on 24 September 2025 at 7:32am EDT. NOAA's status page also refers to the spacecraft as SOLAR-1. It is described as a solar wind and coronal mass ejection monitor, used for early warning of storms.

Sources: [1], [2] · Launch announcement; status page header

NOAA's SOLAR-1 status page lists the spacecraft at L1 as primary, with an operational date given as 6/10/2026 (read here as 10 June 2026).

Sources: [2] · Status summary

The UK Met Office Space Weather Operations Centre operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, and its forecasts cover satellite operations, power grids, GNSS and satellite navigation, high-frequency radio and aviation.

Sources: [6] · Operations centre and impacts sections

Solar flares reach Earth in about eight and a half minutes, so flare effects such as radio blackouts can occur with little warning, whereas coronal mass ejections take one to several days to arrive.

Sources: [6] · Timing section

A 2018 study by Riley and colleagues assessed coronal mass ejection arrival-time forecasts submitted to the CCMC scoreboard from 2013 to 2018. The best-performing models had a mean absolute error of 13 hours and a standard deviation of 15 hours. Models were on average within about 10 hours, but standard deviations often exceeded 20 hours, and there was no evidence that forecasts had become more accurate during the period.

Sources: [7] · Abstract

Reported, unverified Stated by a company or team but not independently confirmed.

On 8 February 2022, SpaceX said up to 40 of the 49 Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 would reenter or had already reentered, and attributed the loss to a geomagnetic storm that raised atmospheric drag up to 50 percent above previous launches.

Sources: [4] · Report of SpaceX update · medium confidence

NOAA reported a G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm reaching Earth on 10 May 2024. CBS News reported that the previous G5 storm was in October 2003. NOAA warned that some grid systems might experience blackouts and that satellite navigation and radio might be disrupted.

Sources: [3] · Report quoting NOAA · medium confidence

Proposed A design or plan that has not yet been built or tested.

ESA plans to launch the Vigil mission in 2031 on an Ariane 6 rocket, to orbit the Sun-Earth L5 point, where it could give up to four to five days of notice for certain space weather effects.

Sources: [5] · Mission overview · medium confidence

Limitations and open problems

  • Arrival-time forecasts for coronal mass ejections are often off by many hours. Riley and colleagues (2018) found standard deviations often above 20 hours for the models they assessed, and no improvement between 2013 and 2018.
  • Solar flares reach Earth in about eight and a half minutes, so flare effects such as radio blackouts give little warning (UK Met Office).
  • The Met Office article describing its service does not give forecast accuracy figures, so current skill for grid and satellite impacts is not established by the sources reviewed.
  • Vigil's launch in 2031 is a planned date, and the ESA page does not give a firm schedule. Until it flies, the L5 viewpoint is not available.
  • The SpaceX figures for the February 2022 loss come from SpaceX's own statement, as reported by NBC News. No independent count of the satellites lost was found in the sources reviewed.
  • Whether DSCOVR, the older L1 solar wind monitor, still provides operational data in 2026 could not be confirmed from the sources reviewed.

Possible future uses

Speculative

Ideas, not predictions. None of these has been demonstrated.

  • Scheduling low-orbit satellite launches and manoeuvres to avoid forecast storm windows, so that newly deployed satellites are not left exposed to high drag.
  • Automatic protective modes for grid transformers and high-voltage equipment, triggered by a forecast rather than by a measured storm.
  • Coupling storm forecasts to orbit-prediction tools so that operators can plan collision avoidance during periods of high satellite drag.

Timeline

  1. 8 Feb 2022SpaceX says up to 40 of the 49 Starlink satellites launched on 3 February 2022 will reenter or have reentered, attributing the loss to a geomagnetic storm that raised drag. Sources: [4]
  2. 10 May 2024NOAA reports a G5 (extreme) geomagnetic storm reaching Earth, the most severe level on its scale. NOAA warns of possible grid blackouts and satellite navigation disruption. CBS News reports the previous G5 storm was in October 2003. Sources: [3]
  3. 24 Sept 2025NOAA's SWFO-L1 solar wind and coronal mass ejection monitor launches at 7:32am EDT. Sources: [1]
  4. 10 Jun 2026NOAA's status page gives 6/10/2026 (read as 10 June 2026) as the operational date for SOLAR-1 at L1, listed as the primary spacecraft. Sources: [2]
  5. 2031Planned launch of ESA's Vigil mission to the L5 point on Ariane 6, to give up to four to five days' warning of certain space weather effects. Sources: [5]

Related breakthroughs

Glossary

Coronal mass ejection (CME)
A large cloud of magnetised plasma thrown out from the Sun's outer atmosphere. When it reaches Earth it can drive a geomagnetic storm.
Geomagnetic storm
A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field caused by the solar wind or by a CME striking the magnetosphere.
G-scale
NOAA's five-level scale (G1 to G5) for geomagnetic storms, where G5 is the most severe.
Lagrange point
A point in the Sun-Earth system where a spacecraft can stay in a stable position relative to both bodies. L1 lies between the Sun and Earth, and L5 lies on Earth's orbit, ahead of the planet.

Sources

  1. government report
    SWFO-L1 successfully launched
    NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center, 24 Sept 2025. Accessed 22 Oct 2026.
  2. government report
    SOLAR-1 Instrument & Subsystem Performance Status
    NOAA Office of Space Operations (OSPO), 3 Sept 2026. Accessed 22 Oct 2026.
  3. news
    'Extreme' G5 geomagnetic storm reaches Earth, NOAA says, following 'unusual' solar event
    CBS News, 11 May 2024. Accessed 22 Oct 2026.
  4. news
    SpaceX says a geomagnetic storm doomed 40 Starlink satellites
    NBC News, 9 Feb 2022. Accessed 22 Oct 2026.
  5. government report
    Vigil mission overview
    European Space Agency, 22 Oct 2026. Accessed 22 Oct 2026.
  6. other
    How the Met Office forecasts space weather and why it matters
    Met Office, 21 Jan 2026. Accessed 22 Oct 2026.
  7. peer reviewed paper
    Forecasting the Arrival Time of Coronal Mass Ejections: Analysis of the CCMC CME Scoreboard
    Pete Riley, Leila Mays, Jesse Andries et al.. Space Weather, American Geophysical Union, Sept 2018. DOI: 10.1029/2018SW001962. Accessed 22 Oct 2026.

Revision history

3 changes since this profile was created.

Changes on 22 Oct 2026
Published on owner instruction (owner requested space, food and water topics)dc4cd89
Sources and claims re-checked against originals409337d
Initial profile drafted from primary sourceseaac9eb